A few more sellers than this time last year, active listing inventory crept up a bit, but buying activity is also increasing for Spring so we’ll see where it ends up.
Seasonally, the national supply of single-family houses (inventory) will increase as we enter the Spring. Inventory has remained flat for the last couple of weeks. Seller supply remains constricted. The national inventory remains 25% below 2020 levels. Some parts of the country are back to “normal,” and others are not. Condos are also a problem in Florida. Most of the condos for sale in the US are in Florida. Prices are getting softer.
The number of owners with a mortgage over 6% has increased to 17%, the highest since 2016. The big stat for you is that house payments are 115% higher than 2020.
The monthly payment on a house is only $26 shy of the recent high. Buyers are applying for mortgages and searching homes, but they are cautious.
Mortgage delinquency rates are 3.72%, less than the 4.5% pre-pandemic level.
Foreclosure starts are 5.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Foreclosures are 34% less than pre-pandemic levels.
This is because people don’t want to lose their loan payments.
Nothing shows an imminent price crash unless the greater economy tanks. That is unlikely. The real problem is that people with median incomes can't afford a median-priced house. That is a significant problem that can only be fixed with wages catching up to cost.
We need more houses. If the illegal immigration situation changes, that may affect housing. No one knows by how much.
Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that the sales pace is increasing now.
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, Joe Manausa, and others)
Source: tradingeconomics.com
Source: tradingeconomics.com
-The temporary Tariff effect will play out over a couple of months until the posturing stops. I think we all understand that tariffs are not usually intended to be permanent, they simply bring countries back to the negotiation table for fair trade agreements. Our recent trade agreements with China, Mexico, and Canada have not been fair or to America’s mutual benefit. They need us more than we need them, so it will turn out fine in the end. Notice Billions in development by Honda and others have already moved into the US.
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30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.67% as of March 20th, 2025 (previously 6.65%)
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.00% as of March 21st 2025 (previously -6.20%)
The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where it was entering the pandemic
FHA mortgages accounted for 90% of the 131K year-over-year rise in the number of delinquencies, despite making up less than 15% of all active mortgages
4,100 homeowners in Los Angeles are now past due as a result of the wildfires, up from 700 in January, with daily performance data suggesting that number could edge higher in March
Foreclosure starts (-17%) and sales (-11%) eased in February, but are up (+34%/+7%) from the same time last year as VA foreclosure activity resumed after a year-long moratorium
Prepayment activity (SMM) fell to 0.46% in February, the lowest level in a year, on higher rates and a seasonal dip in home sales
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