The RE market is fine. Buying activity is stable and normal. Inventory ticked down with vacations. It's seasonal. It’s well within the 80-100k new weekly listings we had pre-pandemic.
Interest rates are stable in the 6.7 range as well. But sales get slower in the summer.
The RE market is still stabilizing from the pandemic and post pandemic rate change. That threw the market completely awry and it takes awhile to figure out what we’re going to end up with.
That makes a “Crash” very unlikely. We also don’t have much distress in housing. We have more inventory because houses are harder to buy due to affordability. It’s not more sellers than normal, it’s less home-buyers.
Wages are increasing for people to afford current housing. I don’t mean through min wage increase, I mean through job growth by creating demand for products and services, and building more affordable housing with less regulation.
See below for the June jobs report, it’s incredibly good!
We need more houses. If the illegal immigrant deportation situation changes, that may affect housing. No one knows by how much.
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, and others)
Source: tradingeconomics.com
Source: tradingeconomics.com
— *** The jobs report is important. Please know when the gov puts out a report like "jobs", there is a revision done a month or so later, when they crunch the actual numbers. The press rarely reports the revisions, but that is the most accurate. I advise you to put less emphasis on the initial reports and look at the later revised reports for a more accurate view. They indicate part-time, full-time, native born and foreign-born, private sector and public sector job, those are categories that matter.
**** We love “co-living” for amazing cash flow. Ask us about how we can help you retire with just 5 single-family houses.
National delinquency rate: The delinquency rate fell by eight basis points (bps) in July to 3.27%, a 9-basis-point improvement year over year (YoY) and still 58 basis points below its 2019 levels.
Serious delinquencies: Loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure held steady overall. Also, while serious delinquencies are up 30,000 YoY, it is the smallest annual increase since November, as the impacts from recent wildfires and last year’s hurricanes continue to fade.
FHA delinquencies: FHA loans remain the primary driver of stress in the market. While FHA delinquencies ticked down by 5 basis points in July, they are still 15 basis points above year-ago levels and now account for the majority (52%) of serious delinquencies nationwide.
Foreclosure activity: Foreclosure inventory rose 10% YoY, with starts increasing annually for eight straight months and foreclosure sales up in each of the past five months. Even so, the national foreclosure rate remains 35% below pre-pandemic norms.
Prepayment activity: Prepayments edged up slightly to 0.67% in July on a modest improvement in rates and are up more than 12% from a year ago.
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