REAL ESTATE REALITY ZONE
The RE Reality Zone is a quick summary of key real estate market data available for you to get clarity on the market trends without getting lost in the noise of fake news, YouTube clickbait, or data overwhelm.
30 Second Summary
If you only have 30 seconds read this:
Buying activity is stable.
Inventory is up, but it's also up every year at this time. It's seasonal. well within the 80-100k new weekly listings we had pre-pandemic.
The RE market is still stabilizing from the pandemic and post pandemic rate change. That threw the market completely awry and it takes awhile to figure out what we’re going to end up with. What we know for SURE, is that we don’t have enough houses. That makes a “Crash” very unlikely.
We also don’t have much distress in housing. We have more inventory because houses are harder to buy due to affordability. It’s not more sellers than normal, it’s less home-buyers. We MUST increase wages for people to afford current house price. I don’t mean through min wage increase, I mean through job growth by creating demand for products and services, and building more affordable housing with less regulation.
Check out this chart often for wage numbers (notice pre-2020)
Nothing shows an imminent price crash unless the greater economy tanks. That is unlikely. The real problem is that people with median incomes can't afford a median-priced house. That is a significant problem that can only be fixed with wages catching up to price.
We need more houses. If the illegal immigrant deportation situation changes, that may affect housing. No one knows by how much.
Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that the sales pace is increasing now.
I have some comments below on the tariff situation.
Key Stats
If you have 2.5 more minutes see below:
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, and others)
Last week’s SFH Inventory on Market: 828,890
This week’s SFH Inventory on Market: 831,110
Pending Sales – 86,718 (3.2% lower than same week last year)
New listings – 99,921 (0.7% lower than same week last year)
This week’s price reductions are Higher than last year at 40.3% = High (normal is 30-35%).
(A leading indicator of buyer demand strength, and home price direction)
May’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: $414,000
June’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: $422,800 (1.34% higher than same month last year)
Last week's Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $464,295
This Week’s Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $464,990
Housing Vacancy Rate: 6.9% – very low (quarterly)
National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2025 were 7.1 percent for rental housing and 1.1 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate increased from 6.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 and was slightly higher than in the fourth quarter of 2024 (6.9 percent). Source
United States Single Family Home Prices
Source: tradingeconomics.com
United States Total Housing Inventory
Source: tradingeconomics.com
Charts below updated on July 3, 2025
Policy Watch
– I hope to provide you with the commonly referenced, applicable financial data to see for yourself what effect government economic policy has on jobs, incomes, debt positions, and affordability for Americans, regardless of party.
— The jobs report is important. Please know when the gov puts out a report like "jobs", there is a revision done a month or so later, sometimes later, when they crunch the actual numbers. The press rarely reports the revisions, but that is the most accurate. I advise you to ignore the initial reports and ONLY look at the later revised reports for a more accurate view. They indicate part-time, full-time, or foreign-born jobs, those are categories that matter.
April added 177k Jobs
May added 139k jobs
-Tarriffs are a big topic right now. I suggest this read. The goal is “reciprocal” tariffs with the countries that tariff us. There is no need to maintain the incredible trade deficit we have now. How does that serve America?
-Renegotiating fair trade benefits American workers and industries. Very difficult to work through the math. We do know it’s been billions in revenue each month. Continuing to observe.
-Lot of chatter on the Big Beautiful Bill. OMB and CBO disagree on the outcome, but the CBO were not factoring in the tax cuts. The OMB estimate of $1.4 trillion reduced is likely accurate.
-The US owes 36 Trillion dollars in national debt, please hold our leaders accountable to reduce that number and be fiscally responsible. Yes, it means tough discussions on what should be cut. This high debt means interest rates have to be higher to sell the treasuries to other countries.
— The BRICS nations are going to have a hard time coming off the Dollar as the U.S. actions being taken to curb spending kick in to increase stability. They’re going to try, but the consensus is odds are low.
— Please say NO to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in any form (ie Fedcoin).
– Passive income from RE is a shield for most of this, whereas "flipping" and wholesaling can stop at any time.
**** We love “co-living” for amazing cash flow. Ask us about how we can help you retire with just 5 single-family houses.
Mortgage Applications & Rates
Because the current market relies HEAVILY on the CHANGE in mortgage rates, we’ve added this section.
Key Mortgage Stats:
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.67% as of July 3rd, 2025 (previously 6.77%)
MBA Mortgage Applications: 2.7% as of June 27th 2025 (previously 1.1%)
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage backed by Freddie Mac dropped by 10 bps from the previous week to the lowest since April of 6.67% as of July 3rd, easing further from its highest level in nearly four months seen five weeks ago.
“The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased for the fifth consecutive week. This is the largest weekly decline since early March. Declining mortgage rates are encouraging and, while overall affordability challenges remain, more sellers are entering the market giving prospective buyers an advantage,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.Source: Trading Economics
The volume of mortgage applications in the US rose by 2.7% from the previous week in the last week of June 2025, extending the 1.1% increase in the earlier period, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The increase was consistent with another drop in benchmark mortgage rates, with that on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropping 9bps to a near three-month low of 6.79%.
Benchmark borrowing costs moved in tandem with longer-dated Treasury yields amid lower concerns of high inflation and tariffs. Applications for a contract to refinance a mortgage, which is more sensitive to short term changes in interest rates, surged by 7%. In turn, applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home were loosely unchanged.
Source: Trading Economics
United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
Source: Trading Economics
Delinquency & Foreclosures
Understand the leading indicator of borrower stress. (It will lag behind a few weeks before the data is reported)
ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Hold Steady and Foreclosure Sales Rise to Highest Level Since Early 2023
The national delinquency rate ticked down 2 basis points (bps) to 3.20% in May, though it is up 5.2% (16 bps) year over year (YoY).
Serious delinquencies – loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure – improved seasonally for the fifth consecutive month, but are still up 56K (14%) from the same time last year.
Disaster-related delinquencies also improved, with those related to the 2024 hurricane season falling by nearly 5K (26%) month over month (MoM) and Los Angeles wildfire-related delinquencies falling by a more modest 9% MoM.
Foreclosure starts and active foreclosure inventories climbed YoY, with May’s 7K foreclosure sales marking the largest single-month volume in more than two years.
Prepayment activity, as measured by single month mortality, inched up to 0.71%, the highest level since October 2024, driven by a seasonal rise in home sale-related prepayments. Prepayments were up 23.4% YoY.
For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to
[email protected].
US Historical Foreclosure Activity and Rates
Population Growth
Top Ten Growing States
Top Ten Declining States
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