REAL ESTATE REALITY ZONE

The RE Reality Zone is a quick summary of key real estate market data available for you to get clarity on the market trends without getting lost in the noise of fake news, YouTube clickbait, or data overwhelm.

30 Second Summary

If you only have 30 seconds read this:

The RE market is fine. Buying activity is stable and normal for this time of year, as is listing activity. Inventory of houses for sale is down, and will slowly decline the rest of the year.

Interest rates are stable in the 6.3 range as well.

The RE market has essentially stabilized from the pandemic and post pandemic rate change.

Wages are increasing for people to afford current housing. I don’t mean through min wage increase, I mean through job growth by creating demand for products and services, and building more affordable housing with less regulation. “No tax on tips” put hundreds of dollars per month back in the pockets of a lot of people that will help offset their bill/housing, and declared income for mortgages!

See below for the jobs info, lot going on. Not about the “total” right now, it’s about the mix of part time or full time, and citizen or not.

We need more houses. If the illegal immigrant deportation situation changes, that may affect housing availability. No one knows by how much.

Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that sales pace usually declines from here.

Key Stats

If you have 2.5 more minutes see below:

(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, and others)

Last week’s SFH Inventory on Market: 862,883

This week’s SFH Inventory on Market: 862,575

Pending Sales – 78,023 (0.9% lower than same week last year)

New listings – 91,387 (2.5% higher than same week last year)

This week’s price reductions are Higher than last year at 41.6% = High (normal is 30-35%).

(A leading indicator of buyer demand strength, and home price direction)

July’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: $425,700

August’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: $422,600 (2.03% higher than same month last year)

Last week's Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $445,000

This Week’s Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $445,000

Housing Vacancy Rate: 7.0% – very low (quarterly)

National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2025 were 7.0 percent for rental housing and 1.1 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate decreased from 1.41 percent over the first quarter of 2025 and was slightly higher than in the second quarter of 2024 (6.06 percent). Source

United States Single Family Home Prices

Source: tradingeconomics.com

United States Total Housing Inventory

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Charts below updated on October 2, 2025

Policy Watch

Big picture items that may affect Real Estate:

- Fed signals potential rate drop in next meeting.

– I hope to provide you with the commonly referenced, applicable financial data to see for yourself what effect government economic policy has on jobs, incomes, debt positions, and affordability for Americans, regardless of party.

— *** The jobs report is important. Please know when the gov puts out a report like "jobs", there is a revision done a month or so later, when they crunch the actual numbers. The press rarely reports the revisions, but that is the most accurate. I advise you to put less emphasis on the initial reports and look at the later revised reports for a more accurate view. They indicate part-time, full-time, native born and foreign-born, private sector and public sector job, those are categories that matter.

- April added 177k Jobs

- May added 139k jobs

- June added 147k jobs - 78 of 79 “experts” predicted less than 100k

** SEE THE REVISIONS DOWNWARD and perspective https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jobs-shocker-july-payrolls-far-below-estimates-follow-massive-revisions-lower

The problem this brings up is why/how is Labor department all over the place for the last few years, by 100s of thousands. Hourly wages are up 4%, but how is that true if people aren’t being hired? Wages go up to attract workers when there is a limited number of them. Wages go down when plenty of people are avail for hire. This means there is something going on in the reporting.

CLICK THIS JULYJOBS REPORT ←—-Click

CLICK THIS AUGUST JOBS REPORT ←— CLICK

Summary- it’s not good, some part time increases, full-time decreases, essentially net 0.

What it DOES mean is the Fed is likely to cut Rates 50 bps. That would be great!

- Inflation is stable, has not increased with tariffs as many claimed. What did increase was billions in revenue for the U.S.

- CBO just said debt reduction is likely 4T over 10 years. Policies are trying to speed that up, we need 10T reduction over 10 years without going into austerity. We can do it by selling energy, and charging to sell in our markets.

-The US owes 36 Trillion dollars in national debt, please hold our leaders accountable to reduce that number and be fiscally responsible. Yes, it means tough discussions on what should be cut. This high debt means interest rates have to be higher to sell the treasuries to other countries. Ideally the Fed can lower rates, you can see in the news there is a spat with Fed chair and Trump admin. The rates right now are costing America 100s of Billions in interest.

— The BRICS nations are going to have a hard time coming off the Dollar as the U.S. actions being taken to curb spending kick in to increase stability. They’re going to try, but the consensus is odds are low.

— Please say NO to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in any form (ie Fedcoin).

– Passive income from RE is a shield for most of this, whereas "flipping" and wholesaling can stop at any time.

**** We love “co-living” for amazing cash flow. Ask us about how we can help you retire with just 5 single-family houses.

Mortgage Applications & Rates

Because the current market relies HEAVILY on the CHANGE in mortgage rates, we’ve added this section.

Key Mortgage Stats:

30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.34% as of October 2nd 2025 (previously 6.30%)

MBA Mortgage Applications: -12.7% as of October 1st 2025 (previously 0.60%)

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage backed by Freddie Mac rose by 4 bps from the previous week to 6.34% as of October 2nd, rebounding for a second straight week as treasury yields ticked higher. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased again this week but remains below its 52-week average of 6.71%.

The last few months have brought lower rates and as indicated by the recently reported increase in pending home sales, homebuyers are feeling more confident to get into the market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Mortgage rates, along with the Treasury yields that influence them, are likely to remain within a narrow range for now as financial markets weigh the effects of the government shutdown.

Source: Trading Economics

The volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by 12.7% from the previous week on the period ending September 26th, tying for sharpest decline in nearly one year. The result trimmed the combined 42% surge in weekly mortgage applications in the last three weeks as benchmark mortgage rates rebounded from a one-year low, with yields on long-dated Treasury securities rising due to softer concerns of a weak labor market and stronger spending data.

Applications for a contract to refinance and existing mortgage, which is more sensitive to short-term changes in rates, plunged by 21% from the previous week. In turn, applications for a mortgage to buy a new home eased by 1%.

Source: Trading Economics

United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate


Source: Trading Economics

Delinquency & Foreclosures

Understand the leading indicator of borrower stress. (It will lag behind a few weeks before the data is reported)

ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Up on Calendar Effect; Foreclosure Activity Slowly Trending Higher

  • The national delinquency rate rose by 16 basis points (bps) in August to 3.43%, up 10 bps from the same time last year, marking a return to annual increases after temporary reprieves in June and July.

  • Mortgage delinquencies typically face little seasonal pressure from July to August, but the last day of August 2025 falling on a Sunday resulted in delayed processing and temporarily higher delinquency rolls. For instance, August 2003, 2008, and 2014 also ended on a Sunday, each experiencing a delinquency rise averaging 5.3%. This is similar to the 5.0% rise observed this year – suggesting that much of August’s delinquency rise may have been driven by the way the calendar fell.

  • FHA loans continue to see the largest annual increases, with the non-current rate (delinquencies including foreclosures) up by 86 bps to 12.0% in August, while the non-current rates for VA, GSE, and portfolio-held mortgages remained effectively flat year over year.

  • Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure) rose by 16,000 in August and are up 32,000 year over year, while loans in active foreclosure increased by 3,000 for the month and 23,000 since last year.

  • Foreclosure starts rose year-over-year (+6%) for the ninth consecutive month, and foreclosure sales (+22.5%) are up from the same time last year for the sixth consecutive month, contributing to a 12.3% annual increase in foreclosure inventory.

  • Inflows and transitions to later stages of delinquency increased across the board, while cures to current from both early- and late-stage delinquency fell.

  • August prepayment activity slipped by 1 bp to a 0.66% single month mortality (SMM) rate, reflecting seasonal home buying patterns and relatively steady interest rates in July.

For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to
[email protected]
.

US Historical Foreclosure Activity and Rates

Population Growth

Top Ten Growing States

Top Ten Declining States

Transform your financial future with Fidelis Wealth Builders and iAccelerate.

Copyright 2025. Fidelis Wealth Builders. All Rights Reserved.