With an expectation to go to back to the booming economy levels of 2016-2020, optimism is higher. Seasonally, the national supply of single-family houses (inventory) is LOWER, and will decline for the remainder of the year, (total inventory still 25% below pre-pandemic level).
The new listing volume continues to show very low motivation for sellers to sell. The lack of sellers has been coined “the Great Stay”. Low inventory and low Sellers have kept home prices about 5% higher compared to this point in 2023 (nationally). Interestingly, the country has a different real estate market in half the country. Half has a higher inventory and is softer than the other half. The Reality Zone shows those differences.
Nothing shows a crash in price imminent unless the greater economy tanks. Loan delinquency has had a 16-month consecutive increase of 5% year over year.
Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that the sales pace gets slower in most areas in the second half of the year. If you have houses on the market, price to sell now.
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, Joe Manausa, and others)
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.72% as of December 19, 2024 (previously 6.70%)
MBA Mortgage Applications: -0.70% as of December 19, 2024 (previously 5.40%)
At 3.45% in October, the national delinquency rate was up 6% from the same time last year, marking five consecutive months of year-over-year increases
While 30- & 60-day delinquencies decreased from September, seriously past due loans (90+ days) continued their slow rise, now up 7.3% from last year and at the highest level since May 2023
Though both foreclosure starts (+12.2%) and completions (+10.1%) were up in October, both remain down from last year (-12.3% and -9.5%, respectively) and well below pre-pandemic levels
Likewise, foreclosure inventory was up a modest +1K in the month, but there are 28K fewer loans in active foreclosure than there were at this same time last year
Prepayment activity rose on easing interest rates to a level not seen in over two years (May 2022) and nearly double where it was last October