The number of owners with a mortgage over 6% has increased to 17%, the highest since 2016. The big stat for you is that house payments are 115% higher than 2020.
The monthly payment on a house is only $26 shy of the recent high. Buyers are applying for mortgages and searching homes, but they are cautious.
Mortgage delinquency rates are 3.72%, less than the 4.5% pre-pandemic level.
Foreclosure starts are 5.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Foreclosures are 34% less than pre-pandemic levels.
This is because people don’t want to lose their loan payments.
Nothing shows an imminent price crash unless the greater economy tanks. That is unlikely. The real problem is that people with median incomes can't afford a median-priced house. That is a significant problem that can only be fixed with wages catching up to cost.
We need more houses. If the illegal immigration situation changes, that may affect housing. No one knows by how much.
Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that the sales pace is increasing now.
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, Joe Manausa, and others)
Source: tradingeconomics.com
Source: tradingeconomics.com
-Tarriffs are a big topic right now. I suggest this read. The goal is “reciprocal” tariffs with the countries that tariff us. There is no need to maintain the incredible trade deficit we have now. Renegotiating fair trade benefits American workers and industries. There is no obligation for America to keep funding other countries via trade imbalances, nor should we when we’re 36 Trillion in debt. I see guys like Erdmann saying tariffs are “dumb”, but it is difficult to understand his charting/logic when we feel the pain of imbalanced trade every day in the form of lower wages from manufacturing. I saw an article the other day lamenting the “pencil pushers” who make charts to justify everything while the practical pain continues to increase. I’m remaining in the camp of supporting policy requiring other markets open to us if they want ours open to them. Not saying anything bad about Erdmann, I understand his premise on the critical need for lower priced housing. I don’t see his rationale for it being better to let others sell to us here without us being able to sell to them. That creates a dependence on those nations to supply us goods. I’ll continue to study it.
-The temporary Tariff effect will play out over a couple of months until the posturing stops, in our favor. I think we all understand that tariffs are not usually intended to be permanent, they simply bring countries back to the negotiation table for fair trade agreements.
Notice 3 Trillion in development by Honda and others have already moved into the US. Notice everyone is already playing ball except China. They export 5 times more to us than we export to them. Yes 5 to 1. So let’s see what happens. Does it mean Americans pay a little more for a “made in America” product? Yes, and it will last longer, and that company now making more revenue will pay workers more, and those workers will spend the money on other things, sales of those things go up. Etc.. That’s how it’s good. ALSO, there are tax cuts coming, and those cuts will offset the effect of not being able to buy junk from China.
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30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.83% as of April 17th, 2025 (previously 6.62%)
MBA Mortgage Applications: -12.70% as of April 18th 2025 (previously -8.50%)
The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where it was entering the pandemic
FHA mortgages accounted for 90% of the 131K year-over-year rise in the number of delinquencies, despite making up less than 15% of all active mortgages
4,100 homeowners in Los Angeles are now past due as a result of the wildfires, up from 700 in January, with daily performance data suggesting that number could edge higher in March
Foreclosure starts (-17%) and sales (-11%) eased in February, but are up (+34%/+7%) from the same time last year as VA foreclosure activity resumed after a year-long moratorium
Prepayment activity (SMM) fell to 0.46% in February, the lowest level in a year, on higher rates and a seasonal dip in home sales
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