The RE market is fine. Buying activity is stable and normal. Inventory ticked down with vacations. It's seasonal. It’s well within the 80-100k new weekly listings we had pre-pandemic.
Interest rates are stable in the 6.7 range as well. But sales get slower in the summer.
The RE market is still stabilizing from the pandemic and post pandemic rate change. That threw the market completely awry and it takes awhile to figure out what we’re going to end up with.
That makes a “Crash” very unlikely. We also don’t have much distress in housing. We have more inventory because houses are harder to buy due to affordability. It’s not more sellers than normal, it’s less home-buyers.
Wages are increasing for people to afford current housing. I don’t mean through min wage increase, I mean through job growth by creating demand for products and services, and building more affordable housing with less regulation.
See below for the June jobs report, it’s incredibly good!
We need more houses. If the illegal immigrant deportation situation changes, that may affect housing. No one knows by how much.
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, and others)
Source: tradingeconomics.com
Source: tradingeconomics.com
— *** The jobs report is important. Please know when the gov puts out a report like "jobs", there is a revision done a month or so later, when they crunch the actual numbers. The press rarely reports the revisions, but that is the most accurate. I advise you to put less emphasis on the initial reports and look at the later revised reports for a more accurate view. They indicate part-time, full-time, native born and foreign-born, private sector and public sector job, those are categories that matter.
**** We love “co-living” for amazing cash flow. Ask us about how we can help you retire with just 5 single-family houses.
The national delinquency rate rose by 15 basis points (bps) from May to 3.35% driven by early-stage delinquencies.
FHA delinquencies, which tend to experience more seasonality, rose by 41 bps in the month, hitting their highest June level since 2013, excluding the 2020-2021 pandemic-era impact.
Serious delinquencies (SDQs) – loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure – held steady but are up +8% (35K) YoY, with FHA loans now accounting for +51% of all SDQs nationwide.
Foreclosure activity continues to rise off pandemic-era lows with the share of loans in active foreclosure up +10% from the same time last year. Foreclosure starts and sales both rose YoY in each of the past four months.
Prepayment activity, measured in single month mortality, slipped by 6 bps to 0.65% on higher rates, although it remains up +22% from the same time last year.
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