Seasonally, the national supply of single-family houses (inventory) will increase as we enter the Spring (total inventory is still 20% below the pre-pandemic level in 30 states).
The new listing volume is trending down, and sellers' motivation to sell continues to be very low because they have lower mortgage payments than they will get if they sell and move. This lack of sellers has been coined “the Great Stay.”
Mortgage delinquency rates are 3.48%, less than the 4.5% normal pre-pandemic level.
Foreclosure starts are 5.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Foreclosures are 34% less than pre-pandemic levels. This is because people don’t want to lose their loan payments. Renting somewhere would be hundreds of dollars more per month.
Nothing shows an imminent price crash unless the greater economy tanks. That is unlikely. The real problem is that people with median incomes can't afford a median-priced house. That is a significant problem that can only be fixed with wages catching up to cost.
We need more houses. If the illegal immigration situation changes, that may affect housing. No one knows by how much.
Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that the sales pace increases starting in late January.
(Stats from from Altos, Housingwire, Jason Hartman, Joe Manausa, and others)
Source: tradingeconomics.com
Source: tradingeconomics.com
-The complaining about tariffs is unwarranted. Look how quickly Canada and Mexico put troops on the border to stop the fentanyl. Also using tariffs to balance trade deficits is not going to “harm our allies” it’s called fair trade. It may have a temp effect on price, but the long-term gains are obviously far better for Americans.
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30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.89% as of February 6th, 2025 (previously 6.95%)
MBA Mortgage Applications: 2.20% as of January 31, 2025 (previously -2.00%)
The national delinquency rate eased 2 basis points (bps) to 3.72% in December, but rose 4.0% year over year – the seventh consecutive annual increase – ending 2024 near a three-year high
Early-stage delinquencies fell 41K (-3.6%) in the month, while serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) continued their slow climb – up 29K (+5.7%) in the month and a fifth consecutive rise year over year
Foreclosure sales declined by 5K (-5.6%) in December, hitting their lowest level in nearly two years, while foreclosure inventory climbed 7K (+3.8%), but was down -10.7% year-over-year
Despite rising in December on volatility around the holidays, foreclosure starts averaged 26,800 per month in 2024, down from 28,500 in 2023 and lower than any year outside the pandemic moratoria
Prepayment activity (measured by single-month mortality or SMM) fell to 0.57% on rising interest rates, down -9.8% in the month but up 47.2% from the same time last year
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